Next year, consumers will continue to pull back on discretionary spending and focus on price-value optimization in U.S. food and beverage, Circana reported in its revised 2026 outlook for the sector.

The company’s outlook points toward a trend of “continued volume tightness amid demand challenges,” and predicts price expectations will moderate due to “evolving price trends and notable shifts in consumer behavior.”

Circana’s forecast projects price/mix growth between 2% and 4%, while volume sales are anticipated to be flat or slightly negative. The company also predicts that total retail food and beverage dollar sales growth will range from 2% to 4% in 2026.

Additionally, fresh categories are poised for higher demand, driven by healthy living trends and increased attention to product ingredients as well as the growing influence of weight-loss drugs.

“Our revised 2026 outlook reflects a market that is tightening and more challenging, but not without growth vectors,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana. “While pricing pressures and cautious consumer sentiment are shaping a more measured growth trajectory, the food and beverage sector continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability. Brands and retailers that prioritize affordability, channel flexibility and personalized experiences will be best positioned to succeed in 2026’s competitive landscape.”

Circana suggests that brands and retailers should:

• Address Value Needs: “Emphasize opening price points for lower-income shoppers and fine-tune price-value for higher-income cohorts.”
• Optimize for the Consumer: “Align channel coverage and promotional investments with shifting consumer migration patterns.”
• Personalize and Innovate: “Differentiate assortment and messaging using AI, especially in e-commerce, to meet evolving consumer expectations for wellness, convenience and taste.”