Retail sales grew in April as many consumers “moved up buying to avoid higher prices expected to come with tariffs,” per the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, released last week by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“Spending rose again in April, driven largely by consumers continuing to pull purchases forward to stay ahead of tariffs that will inevitably lead to higher prices,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Despite declines in confidence caused by the economic uncertainty that has come with tariffs, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower-but-steady income growth and solid household finances. Consumers maintain their ability to spend and have strong reasons to spend now before tariffs can drive up prices or cause shortages on store shelves.”
According to the report, total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.72% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 6.76% unadjusted year over year in April, according to the Retail Monitor. That was higher than increases of 0.6% month over month and 4.75% year over year in March.
“Total sales were up 5.08% year over year for the first four months of the year and core sales were up 5.5%. In addition to strong tariff-driven spending, year-over-year comparisons were likely boosted because Easter fell in April this year after falling in March last year,” wrote NRF.
Categorically, grocery and beverage stores were up 0.59% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 9.51% year over year unadjusted.
Navigating tariffs, Seven & i Holdings said in April that “it expects it will have to take a hard look at its supply chain and rein in costs as U.S. consumers grapple with the impact of U.S. tariffs.” Revenue from North America accounts for 73% of Seven & i's overall sales.
Incoming CEO Stephen Dacus noted that the biggest impact of U.S. tariffs on the company will be from consumer behavior rather than its suppliers directly. "In that environment, you need to look harder at your supply chain, you need to make sure you squeeze your costs really tightly, so you have really good control of it," he said.