Circana Predicts Food and Beverage Will Grow in 2025

Circana released its Compass insights, which delves into the global retail food and beverage (F&B) industry’s performance in 2024 and provides an outlook for 2025. Circana said that in 2024, dollar sales have grown by 2.6%, price/mix by 1.6%, and volume sales by 1.1%.

“As expected, price/mix growth in 2024 fell below historical averages as modest increases in base prices continue, countered by increasing promotion rates,” Circana said.

“Consumers are driven by a demand for value, impacting both volume and price/mix growth,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana. “We’re noticing that channels offering everyday value have become more influential. E-commerce solutions also are increasing … with online transactions now driving 35% of food and beverage dollar sales growth, despite holding only a 10% market share. We [also] expect consumers to continue leaning into private label.”

Circana anticipates the F&B industry will see an increase between 2.0% and 4.0% in dollar sales in 2025. Volume sales growth “will likely range between 0% and 1% as we expect continued strength for at-home occasions with foodservice traffic improvement (e.g., more employees returning to the office).”

Circana’s outlook “assumes a moderate slowdown in economic conditions, including softer growth in 2025 than in 2024 for gross domestic product (GDP) and disposable income, a slightly weakening job market, and stable consumer confidence.”

The industry may see a slight decrease in volume growth as consumers dine out more, coupled with a stronger price/mix driven by demand for premium experiences, predicts Circana. Weaker-than-expected conditions could reinforce in-home meal preferences but reduce willingness to pay for premium products.