Oil, Coal and Gas Demand Expected to Peak by 2030, Says IEA

The International Energy Agency cites the rise of renewable energy.

October 25, 2023

The International Energy Agency released its World Energy Outlook, predicting that the global demand for oil, natural gas and coal will peak by 2030. The report states that the rise of clean energy technologies, such as solar, wind, electric cars and heat pumps, is reshaping the energy industry.

According to the press release, the predictions made in the report were based on the current policies of governments around the world.

The outlook predicts that by 2030, there could be 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide. Additionally, the report predicts that renewable energy could supply 50% of the world’s electricity, an increase from 30% today. Three times as much investment is going toward new offshore wind projects than coal- and gas-fired powerplants.

Should all the predictions come to pass, oil and gas demand would likely plateau slightly above today’s levels for the next 30 years, reported the New York Times. However, predicting global energy trends is difficult, and not always accurate. Government policy changes and conflict in Russia and the Middle East can influence fossil fuel demand.

Exxon Mobil released its own Global Outlook earlier this year, which offered the company’s view of supply and demand dynamics in energy through the year 2050.

According to Exxon Mobil, the increase in the global population will mean that 15% more energy will be needed in order to support the growing population and rising living standard.

Additionally, the Global Outlook predicts that energy from solar and wind will more than quintuple, increasing from 2% of the world’s supply to 11%, while coal will increasingly be displaced by lower-emission sources of energy production (renewables and natural gas). However, despite the increase in renewable energy sources, Exxon Mobil predicts that over 50% of the energy demand will still be met by oil and natural gas.