Retail spending continued to grow in August, fueled by back-to-school shopping and consumers aiming to beat possibly rising prices due to tariffs, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.5% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 6.81% unadjusted year over year in August, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 1.45% month over month and 5.89% year over year in July.
“Consumer spending rose again in August, fueled by a still-stable consumer and a robust back-to-school shopping season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Spending was supported by lower fuel costs, tax-free holidays and consumers buying products before tariff increases take effect. We may be seeing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods. Even with weaker job growth than many expected, employment remains stable and at a high level, giving consumers the ability to spend thoughtfully on household priorities. Nonetheless, consumers are preserving spending power by cutting back on less-essential services.”
Meanwhile, grocery and beverage stores were up 0.98% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.17% year over year unadjusted in August.
Circana noted that perceived back-to-school shopping deadlines and seasonal needs related to a new school year have gotten more relaxed and therefore the shopping period has elongated for the consumer, but the general focus from retail and media remains rooted in the traditional season.
“Consumers are charting their own spending path and changing the way retail seasons are measured,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “There is a new cadence to shopping that goes beyond traditional retail calendars or seasons. Instead, shifts in consumer lifestyle, shopping behavior and media influence are behind today’s retail performance – a dynamic that marketers need to prepare for through the 2025 holiday shopping season and beyond.”
At the 2025 NACS Show in Chicago October 14-17, the education session “Economic Trends Shaping the Future of Retail” will provide an overview of the economic trends impacting the retail and convenience sectors, from inflation and consumer spending shifts to supply chain and technology.