The price of coffee could go up due to President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil starting next month, reported The New York Times.

“Such a tariff would put more pressure on the coffee industry as prices have peaked globally this year. Droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, two of the biggest coffee exporters to the United States, have resulted in smaller harvests in recent seasons, driving up prices,” wrote the Times.

This comes as consumers continue to see an increase in coffee prices. At the end of May, the average price of one pound of ground roast coffee in the U.S. was $7.93, up from $5.99 at the same time last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Per the report, more than 99% of the coffee Americans consume is imported from South America, Africa and Asia. Last year, the United States imported 1.6 million metric tons of both unroasted and roasted coffee, according to the Agriculture Department.

Brazil accounted for more than 8.1 million bags last year, each with 60 kilograms of coffee, that came into the United States.

Any sudden shift would be a “lose-lose situation,” said Guilherme Morya, a coffee analyst for Rabobank-based in São Paulo. Brazilian suppliers, he said, are holding tight and waiting to see if any negotiations will save them from needing to find buyers in other countries.

If wholesale costs for coffee rise by 50%, that could translate to an increase of 25 cents a cup within three months, said Ryan Cummings, the chief of staff for the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. It would take about three months after the tariff went into effect for consumers to see higher prices at stores, he said.

In Brazil, “some of the exports will probably cease entirely,” said David Gantz, an economist at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “Others will continue, but the consumer will end up paying a higher price.”

Interested in how coffee options have evolved in the c-store sector? Join NACS for the “More Than Just a Cup: Transforming Convenience Coffee,” education session at the 2025 NACS Show in Chicago October 14-17. Register for the NACS Show here.