How Did the Economy Perform in July?

NRF reported that consumer spending increased, driven by successful summer sales.

August 13, 2025

Retail spending bounced back in July as consumers took advantage of sales promotions to buy goods before more tariffs could take effect, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, released this week by the National Retail Federation (NRF).

According to the monitor, total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 1.45% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5.89% unadjusted year over year in July. That compared with a decrease of 0.33% month over month and an increase of 3.19% year over year in June.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 1.55% month over month in July and up 5.93% year over year. In June, there was a decrease of 0.32% month over month and an increase of 3.36% year over year.

Meanwhile, NRF reported that total sales were up 4.83% year over year for the first seven months of the year, and core sales were up 5.07%.

“Consumer spending increased in July, driven by successful summer sales events held by many retailers and shoppers continuing to pull purchases forward ahead of tariffs,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Month-over-month gains were sizeable against a weaker-than-normal June. We may be seeing growing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods, particularly non-durables.”

Looking at inflation, it held steady in July even as President Trump’s tariff increases caused some consumer prices to rise, keeping a Federal Reserve rate cut in play for next month, reported The Wall Street Journal.

“Consumer prices were up 2.7% in July from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, unchanged from June’s gain. That was below the 2.8% rise expected by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal,” the outlet wrote. Prices excluding food and energy categories rose 3.1% over the past 12 months, above forecasts for a 3% increase, according to the report.

Curious how the economy is shaping retail trends? Join your peers at the 2025 NACS Show in Chicago, October 14-17, for an education session where experts will break down what these trends mean for your business, offering insights to help you adapt, stay competitive and plan for future growth.