Candy companies are predicting cocoa prices might level out in 2026 after years of escalating, reported The Wall Street Journal.
“It’s certainly going to be positive, even if cocoa is trading at [a] level that is quite higher compared to historical norms,” said Mondelez CFO Luca Zaramella during an earnings call last month.
“For producers like Mondelez … the shift in dynamics eases their need to raise prices to stay profitable. Hershey reported [last month] that the sweet signs of relief allowed the company to adjust its guidance, raising its projection for 2025 net sales growth by one point to approximately 3%,” WSJ wrote.
In an earnings call, Hershey CFO Steven Voskuil told analysts that while the company continues to deal with higher-than-average cocoa costs, the trend is expected to reverse.
“I would hope as we get deeper into 2026, we’d start to see some deflation,” Voskuil said.
Candy is reportedly among the food products most affected by inflation this year, with the consumer-price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing prices through September 2025 up nearly 10% from the previous year.
But cocoa is predicted to become more plentiful soon. “Global production for the upcoming crop year is projected to increase,” said David Branch, a senior vice president with Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. “Given this turnaround with cocoa supply, cocoa futures have dropped from historic highs.”
WSJ reported that improved weather conditions in cocoa-growing areas like West Africa and Ecuador have the crop prospects looking better. The International Cocoa Organization projects that cocoa supplies are expected to go from a deficit of nearly 500,000 metric tons last year to a surplus of nearly 150,000 tons.
Previously, cocoa prices soared as poor weather and plant disease depleted West Africa’s cocoa bean supply, which is about 70% of the world’s cocoa supply. The National Confectioners Association said the U.S. imports nearly $4.4 billion in chocolate, cocoa and candies each year and the association’s members export nearly $2 billion in American-made chocolates and candy annually.