The Fuel Markets After the Midterms
The emerging risks, opportunities and factors that could influence the transportation energy markets in both the short- and long-term.
Nov 13, 2026 | 4 min read
Global fuel markets are likely to remain volatile in the months ahead as geopolitical conflicts disrupt petroleum trade and refining capacity, according to John Eichberger, executive director of the Transportation Energy Institute (TEI).
During a post-midterm election webinar hosted by TEI, Eichberger said roughly 68% of the crude oil traded globally in 2025 now moves through supply channels facing pressure from the war in Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war or U.S.-Canada trade tensions.
“All of these day-to-day movements are not necessarily affecting physical supplies in the market at that moment, but they’re having a major impact on prices,” Eichberger said, adding that crude oil prices have gone up as much as 18% in one day and down as much as 16% in one day this year.
“It is extremely volatile and unpredictable,” he said. “Nothing I have seen or heard gives me any indication that that’s going to be resolved anytime soon.”
Diesel Remains Under Pressure
Eichberger said more than half (58%) of global diesel shipments in 2025 are now moving through supply routes under stress. Refining infrastructure in the Middle East has been damaged, while Ukraine has continued targeting Russian refineries.
The United States historically produces and exports more diesel than it consumes, averaging about 5.8 million barrels per day of production through September compared with domestic consumption of approximately 3.8 million barrels per day.
“Our role in exporting diesel fuel is extremely important,” Eichberger said. Restricting exports could quickly fill domestic storage capacity and force refineries to reduce production, affecting gasoline and other petroleum products, he added.
Vehicle trends are also reshaping long-term fuel demand. Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles represent most (94%) of all vehicles sold through October in the U.S., including conventional and hybrid models. Meanwhile, hybrids accounted for more than 15% of sales.
Eichberger said that greater vehicle fuel efficiency could impact gasoline demand over time, even as EV adoption moves slower than some forecasts suggest. “It’s not taking over the world, but it’s also not going away,” he said of EVs. “I do believe that there’s a bullish outlook for EVs going forward.”
Midterm Elections Reshape Policy Discussions
Matt Durand, deputy general counsel for NACS, said the midterm elections will significantly change the House and Senate agenda, although partisanship could limit the potential for policies to become law.
While Democrats will be controlling both chambers in 2027, their Senate majority is below the threshold needed to overcome a filibuster or override a presidential veto, meaning some Republican support and agreement from the White House will be necessary.
“Both parties now believe that things like gas prices can decide elections,” Durand said. “They’ve seen it play a big role.” (Read Does the President Control Gas Prices?)
During the lame-duck session, members of Congress may vote on government funding, highway and transit programs, the defense authorization bill and the farm bill. Durand said year-round E15 provisions remain tied to the farm bill debate, but disagreements over small-refinery exemptions add some complication.
“NACS has supported year-round E15 for a long time,” he said, though passage remains uncertain.
In the next Congress, Durand expects Democrats to focus heavily on oversight of the Environmental Protection Agency, gas prices, refinery exemptions, vehicle-emissions policies and fuel-economy standards. The House also could pass messaging bills addressing price gouging, tariffs, EV incentives or energy taxes.
For retailers, the immediate priority will be policy decisions that could affect supply, operating costs and consumer prices.
Continue the conversation at the NACS and TEI Future of Mobility Summit. The event takes place December 2-3, in Charlotte, North Carolina, and is designed around multi-energy reality, bringing senior decision makers together to turn changes in fuels, vehicles and technology into investment strategies and new revenue models for the forecourt.
