How Do You Prepare for Global Fuel Market Shifts?

The fuels market in 2026 has been anything but predictable. In early February, most energy analysts were predicting a relatively calm year, with crude oil supply expected to increase, and prices expected to decrease. A few weeks later, everything changed when the Iran conflict began.

While it's difficult to predict global events, there still are ways to mitigate their impact. The lesson from 2026 will be about how to build a business that’s prepared to respond when market conditions inevitably change. The good news: NACS and the Transportation Energy Institute (TEI) have resources that can help fuel retailers navigate change.

A recent TEI study examined how interconnected the world's petroleum markets have become, highlighting how trade flows, infrastructure limitations, fuel specifications and international relationships can allow events thousands of miles away to affect U.S. fuel prices and availability.  

At the April 2026 NACS State of the Industry Summit, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS, showed how conflict had shifted expectations for the global liquids market from a projected surplus to a deficit. 

Fuel retailers are navigating two challenges: first, they need to rethink how they are managing supply, wholesale costs and retail pricing as conditions change, and in the longer term, decide how to invest while preparing for an evolving energy market heavily influenced by vehicle technology and consumer behavior.

In a fluctuating market, retailers need to ask:

• How resilient is their fuel supply strategy?
• Which existing assets continue to warrant investment?
• Where is demand beginning to change?
• Which investments allow for flexibility if forecasts change again?

Go deeper at the NACS and TEI Future of Mobility Summit.

Join your peers December 2-3 in Charlotte, North Carolina, to hear from senior leaders about how changes in global supply, vehicle technology and energy demand translate into decisions at the forecourt. The Summit's agenda includes a session specifically focused on the lasting implications of global supply disruptions and what they mean for the availability, supply and price of retail energy products. 

Register for the Future of Mobility Summit here.