How Much Has COVID-19 Impacted Urbanization?

By Donovan Woods

ALEXANDRIA, Va.—Prior to COVID-19, urbanization—“the process through which cities grow, and higher and higher percentages of the population comes to live in the city,” according to National Geographic—was on the rise globally. So was a rise in urban sprawl, which increased the need for travel infrastructure as communities required more routes to accommodate commuters.

By the second quarter of 2020, nearly half of American workers were working from home, which was double the fraction who worked from home (at least occasionally) in 2017–18. Has the pandemic forever changed the trajectory of urbanization and overall vehicle miles traveled?

In a recent episode of Carpool Chats, “Urbanization in the Age of Pandemic,” John Eichberger, executive director of the Fuels Institute, discusses trends in urban planning and e-commerce with Jeff Wood, principal for The Overhead Wire.

Wood highlights two developments that showcase the complexity of human behavior. First, pandemic-driven relocation that has led to two-thirds of homebuyers and sellers considering moving (or have already moved) to a different city or area—if given the opportunity to work remotely permanently (Redfin). Second, the natural desire for humans to want personal interaction.

Eichberger noted that if 37% of Americans worked from home one day per week transportation-related emissions could decline by an estimated 3% to 5%. The conversation delves into these evolving factors and what this means for transportation planning and overall vehicle miles traveled.

A new episode of Carpool Chats is available every two weeks. “Urbanization in the Age of Pandemic” can be downloaded on iTunes, Google Play, Spotify and viewed on the Fuels Institute YouTube channel.

Donovan Woods is the director of marketing and communications at the Fuels Institute. He can be reached at [email protected].

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