Numerator: Food Restriction Waivers Will Affect One-Third of SNAP Users

The October-November 2025 government shutdown softened SNAP spending in late October and early November. According to new research from the Numerator report, “SNAP Spending in 2026: How OBBBA and Food Restrictions Are Changing Consumer Behavior,” weekly grocery spending among SNAP households fell by 10%, from $233 in the week of October 5 to $210 in the week of October 26, before stabilizing into early November.
 
The research firm said the report combines verified purchase data as well as a survey of over 1,000 SNAP households (households that used SNAP as a payment method on a shopping trip at least once per month for the past year).

The research found that the gas and convenience sector as well as e-commerce saw steep traffic declines as SNAP households cut back on nonessential trips. The retailers and fast food restaurants whose traffic was most affected included 7-Eleven (-18%), Amazon (-17%), Shell (-15%), Ahold Delhaize (-14%), Circle K (-13%), Wawa (-13%) and Taco Bell (-13%), according to the report.

“This report confirms what convenience retailers have been saying all along: SNAP restrictions affect foot traffic and food access. And the data showing steep traffic declines at c-stores during the government shutdown is a reminder that SNAP participants rely on our industry for their everyday needs,” said Margaret Mannion, director of government relations at NACS. “NACS will continue advocating for policies that respect customer choice and preserve the role convenience retailers play in food access across America.”

Looking forward, Food Restriction Waivers will structurally change the program, Numerator said. “By the end of 2026, 19 states will have waivers in place, affecting roughly one-third of SNAP participants. These policies directly restrict the use of SNAP benefits for categories such as soda, candy and energy drinks—categories that were already more likely to be embedded in SNAP baskets.”

Numerator suggests that promotions and private label could see a lift as SNAP households seek value. According to the report, 48% of 55–64-year-old SNAP households expect future reductions in monthly benefits. If benefits are reduced further, consumers in the survey said they plan to shop sales/discounts (54%), buy private label and cheaper brands (37%), visit food pantries (36%) and shop at dollar/discount stores (30%).

NACS has been active on multiple fronts to address the operational challenges the SNAP waiver patchwork creates for retailers, including pushing USDA for a delay in implementation, federal standardization of product definitions, robust UPC-list guidance and safe harbor protections for good-faith compliance efforts.

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