What’s Next for the Retail Economy?

The National Retail Federation (NRF) this week forecast that retail sales in 2026 will grow by 4.4% from 2025 to $5.6 trillion, based on a newly enhanced forecasting approach developed in partnership with Oxford Economics.

NRF said the 2026 sales forecast compares with 3.6% average annual sales growth over the last 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022.

“Although consumer sentiment is not expected to improve significantly, NRF notes that sentiment has remained historically disconnected from actual spending patterns. Solid underlying fundamentals, particularly income growth, household balance sheets and labor market stability, are expected to support continued consumer activity in 2026,” NRF said.

“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support.”

Research firm Placer.ai also investigated what the rest of the year’s economy could look like. Its recent report, “What’s Next for Retail in 2026: An Industry Perspective,” surveyed professionals across the industry to understand how they expect the industry to evolve over the next 12 months.

One of the key takeaways from the report was that confidence in physical retail remains strong. “More than 55% of respondents expressed confidence in brick-and-mortar performance over the next year, with only 20% expressing concern—in line with visit data that points to continued modest visit growth,” Placer.ai said.

The survey also found that retail leaders see AI as a tool to lift the broader retail ecosystem. Forty-four percent expect agentic AI to accelerate digital commerce growth, and more than a third believe it will drive incremental growth across both online and in-store retail.

Interested in learning how the c-store industry is performing? Join your peers at the NACS State of the Industry Summit April 14–16 in Schaumburg, Illinois. In addition to industry performance data, the session “The Economic Narratives and Realities Shaping 2026” will help you gain a deeper understanding of what to expect from a changing economic environment and how to make data-driven decisions to stay competitive while meeting the needs of the modern consumer.