Beer Pricing Pressure Frames 2026 Sales Trends

At the start of 2026, beer pricing was, in the words of Kaleigh Theriault, beverage-alcohol thought leader at NIQ, “a little bit all over the board.”

Beer prices started the year off under pressure as inflation hit the category. NIQ off-premise data as of January showed average beer case prices rose +8.1% since the beginning of 2023, partially resulting in a -9% decline in volume during that period. Retail price upticks did slow in 2025 compared to 2024, but the residual effects of increases over the past few years continue to plague consumers and beer brands.

Beer pricing has been an industry pressure point dating back at least three years, Theriault said, particularly when viewed through the lens of overall inflation during that period. For consumers, this means a squeeze in the beer aisle. Not only do brands potentially look more expensive than they used to, but seemingly everything else in their shopping basket costs more, too. Shoppers are now approaching the category differently, and placing more emphasis on pack sizes or opting for single servings.

Theriault said price is a “core headwind” for beer in 2026. Value is increasingly important to shoppers, but in the beer context, value doesn’t just mean low prices. It means a high-quality product in a convenient format and location at the right price.

In this Q&A, Theriault breaks down what impact beer pricing pressure might have in the year ahead, from value-driven purchasing and premiumization to the growing influence of RTD beverages.

In terms of beer pricing, what are you watching out for in 2026?

Theriault: The idea of price pack architecture is really important within the industry. Sometimes we get stuck thinking only of average shelf price within a subsegment without putting it into context of the sub-segments around it. What does the pricing gap look like between some of these segments and sizes? Is a six-pack of domestic below-premium pushing up too close to domestic premium, or is it keeping a good gap?

What promotions did the category see in 2025?

Theriault: Beer did see lower levels of promotion across 2025, so things became a bit more efficient. Still, 20% of total beer dollars in grocery, drug stores and convenience had some promotional element tied to them [for the 52-week period ending Oct. 18, 2025]. But you have to make sure you're hitting your promotions within the cadence of how your customers are shopping your products. If everything's on sale or everything's being promoted, then nothing is. We do often see a sea of yellow or red tags at the shelf, and consumers are going to respond to that by just sticking with their usual go-to at a lower price.

What impact do Ready-to-Drink (RTD) beverages have on popular pack sizes and consumer shopping habits?

Theriault: RTDs are influencing how people shop other products. This is true across beer, wine and spirits. A person might have previously purchased a 12-pack of beer or a 750 ml bottle of a spirit, but now they're buying their 12-pack of RTDs and they only need a six-pack of beer or a 375 ml of a spirit. Or maybe they're just looking to buy the smaller 50 ml shooters to complement the RTDs. I think we're really seeing the influence of RTDs from a purchasing behavior standpoint affecting pack sizing in other categories.

Those smaller sizes—like single beers for example—might cost more per ounce, but they require less cash at that moment from a shopper who might be on a budget. How is this behavior impacting the category?

Theriault: We do see that when somebody is buying a smaller size spirit for example, sometimes it's because it's a value play and they're not able to afford a 750 ml at that moment. That's happening. Inflation has hit a lot of consumers. The other side of it, though, is that we see somebody buying a more premium product in that smaller size because they’re going to drink it on the rocks and need it to taste really good. So they’re premiumizing there, because when they want a mixed product, they're going with that seltzer or that canned cocktail.

What are the pricing trends for single-serve beer in convenience stores versus grocery and liquor channels?

Theriault: Convenience drove up single-size prices across all types of beer last year, which is interesting to see, because they haven't raised prices on six-packs or 12-packs as much as singles. Craft beer single prices have risen the most (+2.7%), followed by super-premium (+1.9%). In the grocery channel, we also saw an increase in price on single-serve offerings, with super-premium (+3.8%) and domestic premium (+2.2%) leading the way. And then the liquor channel has really taken up price on six-packs, interestingly.

Consumers are increasingly squeezed by the rising cost of food and other necessities. What does that mean for the durability of the trend toward premiumization in alcohol?

Theriault: Alcohol still tends to be that aspirational product for many people. Maybe they're moderating their consumption but when they do choose to drink, they're still going to go for a higher-end product. So though we're in this declining market, we still see those premium brands and products finding their place. The “split-brain budget” is also a factor. The joke is that someone is shopping at the dollar store in Gucci shoes, so it's the idea that people will look for areas where they can cut back on their purchasing. So they might be buying store-brand paper towels, but then they're still going to continue to buy other premium products, like alcohol.

This Q&A has been edited for length and clarity.

C-Suite Executive