Holiday Retail Sales to Grow as Much as 9%

E-commerce is expected to increase 11-15%, Deloitte forecasts.

September 16, 2021

Holiday Shopping in Shopping Mall

NEW YORK—Retail sales this holiday season should increase between 7% and 9% in 2021, according to Deloitte's annual holiday retail forecast, while e-commerce sales are projected to increase by 11-15% year over year.

Holiday retail sales should hit $1.28 trillion to $1.3 trillion from November to January, and holiday e-commerce should reach between $210 billion and $218 billion this season, according to Deloitte.

"We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

Holiday retail sales last year were stronger than expected, growing by 5.8% between November 2020 and January 2021. E-Commerce sales grew 34.8%, totaling $189 billion during that same timeframe.

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