A Holly, Jolly Retail Holiday Sales Forecast
Sales are predicted to jump 5%, despite “unprecedented uncertainty.”
Sep 18, 2019
NEW YORK—Will it be the most wonderful time of the year for retailers this holiday season? The answer is expected to be a resounding “yes” according to several new forecasts that are predicting growth between 4.4% and 5.3%, CNBC reports. To start, Deloitte’s annual survey forecasts a 4.5% to 5% bump, a much better outcome from the Census Bureau data prediction of 3.1%.
“I think this will be a surprise for our clients,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte’s retail and distribution practice in the United States. “I think most [retailers] would expect a slightly lower increase. ... This is probably bigger than those expectations.”
Another forecast by AlixPartners has a similar holiday growth projection of 4.4% to 5.3%, with the caveat that there is “unprecedented uncertainty” ahead of the season. “While our forecast is bullish, we are nevertheless advising clients to be nimble,” said Joel Bines, a managing director for AlixPartners. “These are uncharted waters, and the best course to set is one that includes a strong cost control and flawless execution.”
Fueling the prediction is a strong U.S. labor market with low unemployment rates and high consumer confidence. “In the holiday season, convenience is such a big factor,” Sides said. “I think we are going to see a crunch in convenience.”
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