WASHINGTON – U.S. online retail sales will approach $525 billion by the end of this year, a 15.9% increase over $452 billion in 2017, according to a forecast by FTI Consulting.
Due to stronger-than-expected results last year, the Retail & Consumer Products practice at FTI now expects U.S. online retail sales to top $660 billion by 2020 and surpass $1 trillion in 2025, resulting in a compound annual growth rate of nearly 10% over the next decade.
E-commerce is now 13.2% of the U.S. retail sales market, excluding auto and gas sales. FTI predicts that the total online share of U.S. retail sales will level off at 25% around 2030.
With the sprawling presence of Amazon.com across product categories, the forecast also projects that the retail giant will continue taking a high proportion of online market share, increasing to 39.7% in 2018 from 35.7% in 2017, and reaching 50% in 2023.
“What we’ve come to realize in the last couple of years is that Amazon’s total retail reach, particularly its third-party sales, is considerably larger than previously thought,” said Khaled Haram, senior managing director for retail and consumer products at FTI. “The Amazon ecosystem is taking the vast majority of U.S. online retail sales growth. This is hampering efforts by large omni-channel retailers to retain or win market share without compromising margins and profitability.”