Estimates Higher for State Health Exchanges

At least 19 states say more people will sign up for exchanges than the federal government thought.

August 21, 2013

WASHINGTON – At least 8.5 million uninsured Americans will use state health exchanges, an estimate far greater than the federal government predicted, USA Today reports. Nineteen states provided the newspaper with estimates that are already higher than the federal government’s 7 million for all 50 states. Around 48 million people had no health insurance in 2011, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

“For the most part, that's a very good thing,” said Paul Ginsburg, president of the Center for Studying Health System Change. “First, these are people who need health insurance. And second, the scenario that only sick people will enroll is less likely.”

The Affordable Care Act has a provision that those without access to health insurance through their jobs must purchase it via exchanges. Those who choose not to buy health insurance at all will pay a fine.

The Congressional Budget Office predicted that 7 million people would take part in the exchanges, which will be open October 1 through March 31, 2014. However, California by itself forecast it would have 5.3 million sign up. That would mean the government’s estimate is far too low. The CBO also forecasted that 2 million people who currently receive health insurance from their employers will not do so in 2014.

“Having a target and having a metric to reach that target is important,” said Kathleen Sebelius, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. “I'm optimistic we'll have millions of people sign up. We've been working a long time on this.”

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