WASHINGTON – Retail gasoline prices for summer 2015 are projected to be more than $1 per gallon lower than last summer, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released yesterday.

The EIA is projecting that U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.45/gallon during the summer 2015 period (April through September), down from last summer’s average of $3.59/gallon. The significant price decline reflects the continuing drop in Brent crude oil prices. As always, EIA notes that daily, weekly and regional average prices can differ significantly from monthly and seasonal averages, so prices in some areas could exceed the national average by 40 cents/gallon or more.

Brent crude oil prices have fallen sharply in late 2014 and early 2015 as global supply exceeded demand, contributing to strong increases in oil inventories. EIA projects the Brent crude oil spot price to average $58/barrel ($1.39/gallon), down by almost half from the summer 2014 average of $106/bbl ($2.52/gallon). The projected $1.13/gallon decline in Brent price this summer compared with last summer accounts for the entire decline in retail gasoline prices compared with last summer. Changes in crude oil price are one of the main determinants of changes in retail gasoline prices, and U.S. gasoline prices are more closely tied to prices for globally traded North Sea Brent rather than domestic crude oil prices.

For more on the cyclical nature of gas prices, be sure to read the 2015 NACS Retail Fuels Report.