CHICAGO – More than 165 attendees at FUELS2018 were connecting in Chicago this week for an impressive and thought-provoking event, taking them on a deep dive into the fuels, mobility and vehicles market.
Trey Hohmann, manager of fuels and transport with Stratus Advisors, kicked off FUELS2018 a macro-level overview of the global transportation market, beginning with programs and incentives for electrification of new vehicle fleets. He cited Asia as the clear winner in terms of leading the way for EV policy, where in China, government subsidies have been extended through 2020 that give consumers a 10% rebate for new EVs under the New Energy Vehicle Program. India is encouraging EV and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) adoption with its Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid & Electric Vehicles (FAME) program, while Japan is exempting new “green” technology vehicles from acquisition and tonnage taxes.
Most programs aimed at mass EV adoption, noted Hohmann, rely tax incentives. However, the biggest hurdle—a global hurdle—is a lack of infrastructure and charging points. China is still struggling and has more charging points (440,000) than any other country, he said, adding that in India, a country with more than 1 billion people will need more than its current 350 to 500 charging points if EV adoption is going to become a reality. The United States, meanwhile is split between outlets and actual charging stations (16,120 charging stations; 45,386 charging outlets), as well as a bifurcation between the East and West Coasts.
U.S. market trends show a shift in consumer patterns, said Hohmann, noting that since 104, consumers have moved to SUVs and crossover vehicles with no signs indicating that this trend slowing down, particularly as these vehicles have become less expensive and more efficient. Light-duty trucks have outsold passenger cars since 2014, and given auto manufacturer trends, we can expect that light-duty trucks will remain a big player in the U.S. market.
Hohmann raised an interesting point that fuel-efficient technologies pose more of a threat to fuel demand in the United States than EVs, at least at current EV adoption rates. Start-stop technology, for example, which removes unnecessary engine idling, is becoming more ubiquitous among auto manufacturers, as the tech can be inexpensively added to new vehicle models. Through 2017, start-stop has grown rapidly, with nearly 17% of new vehicles having the tech installed. He noted that in normal driving conditions, start-stop can economize fuel consumption by 3%-5%, while in high congestion situations, it can reduce fuel consumption by up to 10%.
Automakers are also trying to do more with less by using fewer cylinders in vehicles. Through forced-induction technology, automakers can increase the thermal efficiency of vehicle engines by increasing the compression of air blended into the cylinder, therefore providing gasoline more oxygen to combust. Turbocharging technology can now be “dovetailed” with a smaller engine that uses less fuel to produce the same or increased torque and power output, Hohmann said, noting that in 2017, 61.3% of LDV cars in the U.S. that have 4-cylinder engines were turbocharged, while 17.3% of 4-cylinder trucks had a turbocharger.
Such fuel saving technologies can be gained with marginal additional costs, said Hohmann, noting that the most effective and cost-efficient techs are variable valve timing, turbo charging and downsizing, cylinder deactivation and stoichiometric gasoline direct injection.
The Fuels Institute is dedicated to evaluating issues affecting the vehicles and fuels markets, and brings together diverse stakeholders to facilitate industry collaboration and identify opportunities and challenges associated with new technologies. Stay tuned to NACS Daily for more coverage of FUELS2018, which took place May 22-24 in Chicago.