NEW YORK – A new AlixPartners study suggests that the turbulence in the chain-restaurant industry—from underperforming results to an uptick in bankruptcies—might not be just a blip but rather a sign that the industry is facing a defining moment. 

The study examines an array of challenges and opportunities, such as technology, labor costs and growth, that could allow restaurants to stay ahead of big changes fundamentally altering the industry. 

AlixPartners found that 57% of consumers plan to dine out the same number of times in the next 12 months as in the previous 12, the same percentage who said that in a similar AlixPartners survey of a year ago. In addition, the average spending per meal for the past 12 months, $15.38, was the highest in AlixPartners’ nine-year history of conducting such surveys and, moreover, those surveyed said that over the next 12 months they plan to spend even a bit more: $15.43 per meal.

However, this year’s survey also uncovered big anticipated cutbacks, including among higher-frequency diners. For example, diners who patronized fast-food and fast-casual establishments at least twice weekly intend to cut back their visits by 8% and 13%, respectively, over the next 12 months. At a more granular level, those polled said they plan to cut back their fast-food meals to 4.11 per year, down from 4.37 reported for the prior 12 months; their fast-casual meals to 2.93, vs. 3.01; their convenience-store meals to 3.65, vs. 3.71; and their ready-to-eat meals from grocery stores to 2.98, vs. 3.16.

“While lower fuel prices have helped operators by putting more money in consumers’ pockets, that’s become a two-edged sword as cheap gas and the lowest air fares we’ve seen since the recession seem to be enticing consumers to allocate at least some of their restaurant spending on travel and other experiences,” said Adam Werner, managing director at AlixPartners. 

Technology
The study found that not all tech is created equal nor of equal value to consumers. For instance, more than twice as many millennials as Baby Boomers (42% vs. 18%) said they find technologies “very” or “extremely” influential to their decision to dine out. However, mobile technologies appear to be slow to catch on, as 42% of respondents reported that they’ve never used mobile technology for dining-out.

There also appears to be a technological divide between Boomers and millennials with meal delivery, where 50% of millennials said they’re most interested in the availability of call-in-advance delivery. By comparison, 46% of Boomers said they prefer traditional, “in-the-moment” delivery.

The study also notes that consumers seem to be aware of a price gap between restaurants and meals from grocery or convenience stores, emphasizing the importance of price-competitiveness in delivery. In the survey, 56% of respondents who choose ready-to-eat meals from convenience or grocery stores over restaurants said their No. 1 reason is because the latter meals are cheaper. For 22% of respondents, their own convenience came in second.

“All the companies today putting investments into the third-party and other delivery programs might want to step back a bit and look at their operations holistically, with an eye on packaging and available technologies as well as delivery,” said Kurt Schnaubelt, managing director at AlixPartners. “The challenge is to thoroughly understand how well your food ‘travels,’ and to maintain as much control as possible over the entire process.”

Labor
With more states adopting a higher minimum wage and other wage-increase movements afoot in the country, the AlixPartners study also sought to gauge consumers’ opinions on the topic. In this year’s survey, 58% said they agreed with the movement for higher worker wages, up from 50% in last year’s survey. However, those saying they’re not willing to pay more at the restaurant to support the movement rose to 16%, up from 13% in last year’s survey.

Growth
In general, the AlixPartners study describes an industry whose growth prospects do not appear to be as strong as in recent years, but there are areas of potential growth going forward. The survey shows that when it comes to a desire for an expansion in locations, millennials prefer fast casual over traditional casual dining (41% vs. 33%).

And for what AlixPartners calls specialty fast-casual concepts (Shake Shack, Freshii and Blaze Pizza), which have seen significant growth over the past few years, the gourmet-burger concept was the No. 1 restaurant type consumers said they would like to see expand, chosen among the top three picks by 35% of those polled.