WASHINGTON, D.C. – Five years ago, U.S. crude oil production seemed destined to commence a long-term slide downward, but this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that in 2016, U.S. crude oil production will hit record highs not seen in more than 40 years, the Financial Times reports.

The reversal comes after the EIA significantly revised its estimates for future U.S. crude oil production to around 9.5 million barrels daily in 2016, which would close in on the record high of 9.6 million barrels per day reached in 1970. The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook pointed to advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling that accessed oil and gas reserves not available in the past as driving the increase.

The 2012 prediction had U.S. crude production reaching around 7.5 million barrels a day by the decade’s second half, but that level has already been passed. The shale boom has placed the United States behind only China as the world’s biggest net oil importer, which in turn pressures OPEC. Now, the EIA forecasts U.S. crude production will taper off at a slow pace starting in 2020, but added that speculation of the future is very uncertain.

Adam Sieminski, EIA administrator, said that for U.S. oil product exports to continue increasing at the current rate, new refinery capabilities would need to be found, mostly through building new plants. The International Energy Agency predicts that the United States will become the world’s top oil producer in 2015.