Norman Turiano is the principal at Turiano Strategic Consulting, specializing in retail fueling, the customer experience and the future of transportation fuels. He is a member of the Fuels Institute Board of Directors.
LAS VEGAS – Smart phones holistically affect how we interact, shop and communicate, yet before the iPhone’s introduction 10 years ago, most of us could not perceive the effect they would have on us. The educational session, “Next-Gen Vehicles and Your Business,” on Monday at the NACS Show was provocative in a similar way, discussing technologies and trends that many of us may find hard to believe, yet all the data indicates we may be hurtling towards new and uncharted transportation realities.
John Eichberger, executive director of the Fuels Institute, framed the topic by discussing a system in use on the highways in Virginia that interacts with vehicles to move traffic more efficiently by regulating speed limits. The system allows traffic to enter on-ramps into the traffic flow without creating slowdowns, which also had the effect of reducing fuel consumption.
Although the system is passive today, Eichberger showed how discussion regarding a more active process, which interacts with the vehicle rather than the driver, could have a profound effect on the convenience store industry. V2V technology, as it is referred to, targets three objectives: collision mitigation, traffic mitigation and environmental protection in the form of greenhouse gas reduction as well as eliminating much of the 2.9 billion gallons of gasoline estimated to have been lost in traffic in 2011. He pointed out how electric vehicles (EVs) showed the greatest opportunity to exploit V2V opportunities.
Glen Stancil, vice president of electric vehicle services for NRG Energy, shared with the session attendees an intriguing and at times worrisome view of the future. His compelling presentation highlighted the many advantages of EVs, pointing out that the main disadvantages today are limited to range (currently 80 miles) and charging time (30 minutes for Level-3 DC).
Stancil highlighted how the EV vehicle market is gaining momentum, and how government mandates were creating a strong business case for an EV solution. His data made it very clear how a combination of factors could make EVs the winning alternative fuels strategy in the future, noting how Millennials may not value driving, but do value and embrace new technology. Also, Uber is showing interest in purchasing a half-million autonomous EVs by 2020.
Stancil also spoke to the consumer benefit of electric costing $0.03 in comparison to gasoline at approximately $0.10 per mile, and predicted that EVs would comprise 3.9% of vehicles sales by 2020.
The greatest takeaway for the audience was that these sales would likely take place more frequently in metropolitan areas and zero-emission mandated states, and the need for gasoline will not disappear quickly or soon. But it is critical to keep EV developments on our horizon, especially when technology approaches the ability to produce a 200-mile range vehicle that can be charged in 10 to 15 minutes with a more accessible level-3 charger.
There was some discussion regarding whether EV charging would take place at home, during an eight-hour period, or outside of the home with a quick charge. Stancil felt that 80% of charging occasions would occur outside of the home, especially because many homes do not have a garage in which to install a $300 charger. However, many attendees left the room pondering the implications for our industry if any changes to that scenario, or the development of a more robust charging network beyond today’s convenience stores, require us to make adaptive changes to our current business model.