Gas Prices High, Headed Into Holiday

At a seven-year high, the $3.70 per gallon average is still lower than peak prices from last few years.

July 03, 2014

WASHINGTON – On Monday, June 30, the national average retail gasoline price was $3.70 per gallon. Although this is the highest average heading into the Fourth of July holiday since 2008, gasoline prices in 2014 have remained well below the spring peaks reached in each of the previous three years, according to the latest update from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Although prices are currently 20 cents per gallon higher than this time last year, prices this year did not peak as high as in recent years because of relatively stable crude oil prices in 2014. The peak retail gasoline price this year was $3.71/gal on April 29, lower than last year's spring peak of $3.78, and lower than the two years before that.

So far this year, the average price of gasoline has been $3.54/gal, the lowest for the first six months of the year since 2011. Since April, the increase in wholesale gasoline prices is lower (in percentage terms) than the recent increase in crude oil prices: 3.5% for gasoline compared to 7.2% for North Sea Brent.

Typically during this time of year, petroleum refineries return to service from seasonal maintenance outages, which tends to lower wholesale product prices, including gasoline. This year, crude oil prices have increased in part because of unrest in Iraq, a major crude oil producer. These factors have largely offset each other, leaving retail gasoline prices relatively unchanged. World crude oil prices have fallen by $4 per barrel from a 2014 peak of $115 per barrel on June 19. If sustained, this should help bring gasoline prices down in the coming weeks.

On Monday, NACS Vice President of Government Relations John Eichberger told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the price of crude oil, wholesale gasoline and retail gasoline has gone up during the month of June, breaking a three year trend in which these prices had declined throughout June before turning higher in July. He pointed out that the bad news for retailers was that during the first three weeks of June, retail margins had declined 20%, leaving retailers concerned about what the following couple of weeks would bring. Despite these metrics, Eichberger noted that while both retailers and consumers were feeling the pain at the pump, summer time was a positive experience for both. As consumers enjoy the weather and longer days, they tend to visit convenience stores more often. He reported that over the past three years, convenience retailers have experienced a 10 – 15% increase in in-store sales between May and July.

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