LONDON – According to Euromonitor International, the global cigarettes market will record a $7.7 billion loss by 2021, compensated by the $13.2 billion growth in heated tobacco products sales in the same period.
Euromonitor International’s data shows that in 2016, for the first time in decades, the value of the global cigarettes category as a proportion of total tobacco sales fell below 90%, and by 2021, it will reach 86%. While cigarette sales decline, the research highlights growth in the use of vapor products but also further changes within this segment.
Shane MacGuill, head of tobacco research at Euromonitor International, said: “The continued growth in vapor products and, in particular, the emergence of heated tobacco as a viable alternative mode of consumption, represents the major element of disruption for the tobacco industry.”
The research shows that heated tobacco will be the fastest-growing tobacco category in the next five years, to reach $15.4 billion in 2021, up from $2 billion in 2016, recording a 691% growth.
According to the data, in 2016:
- Japan was the largest heated tobacco market, accounting for a share of 96% of heated tobacco products global sales.
- Germany was the second largest heated tobacco market, but the United States will take its place by 2021.
- The third and fourth largest markets for heated tobacco products were Switzerland and Portugal respectively, which were also among the fastest growing markets.
“We believe that heated tobacco will gain a solid presence in at least 35 global markets by 2021, accounting for a share of 3.5% of total global cigarettes and heated tobacco value,” said MacGuill. “Heated tobacco prospects are strong and strengthening. On this evidence, it is a truly a coming force in global tobacco.”
Read more about global tobacco realities for convenience store operators in the June 2017 NACS Magazine feature, “Tobacco Goes Global.”