HOUSTON – Motorists could see a drop in gas prices this
summer, according to government data.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports in
its Short-Term Energy Outlook that during the April-through-September summer
driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to
average $3.63 per gallon. The projected monthly average regular retail gasoline
price falls from $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September. EIA
expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.56 per gallon in 2013 and
$3.39 per gallon in 2014, compared with $3.63 per gallon in 2012.
EIA expects West Coast gasoline prices to be as much as 26
cents per gallon higher this summer than the national average, while the Gulf
Coast could be 16 cents per gallon lower than the national average.
Other major characteristics of the 2013 summer gasoline
market forecast include:
- Gasoline consumption is expected to be down
20,000 bbl/d (-0.2%), as a 0.3% rise in highway travel is more than offset by
improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency.
- Gasoline production may increase by 20,000 bbl/d
(0.3%).
- Net imports of gasoline are expected to be 1.1%
lower than in 2012.
EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which
averaged $112 per barrel in 2012 and rose to $119 per barrel in early February
2013, will average $108 per barrel in 2013 and $101 per barrel in 2014. The
projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which
increased to a monthly average of more than $20 per barrel in February 2013, is
forecast to average $14 per barrel in 2013 and $9 per barrel in 2014, as
planned new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving mid-continent crude oil
to the Gulf Coast refining centers.
“The expected drop
this summer compared with last year is due in part to lower demand, as cars
become more efficient. But it also reflects a continuing moderation in the
global cost of crude, a trend driven by growth in oil production from hydraulic
fracturing of shale deposits in the U.S., analysts say,” wrote the Wall Street
Journal.
"Motorists are beginning to see some benefits arising
from increased domestic oil production, but gas prices remain historically very
high. Most motorists would say that prices have not fallen nearly as fast as
necessary to reduce pain at the pump," AAA spokesman Michael Green told
the news source.
AAA estimates that every $1-per-barrel change in the price
of crude moves gasoline prices up or down 2.5 cents a gallon.