WASHINGTON – During the April-through-September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.57 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projected monthly national average regular retail gasoline price falls from $3.66 per gallon in May to $3.46 per gallon in September.

EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.45 per gallon in 2014 and $3.37 per gallon in 2015, compared with $3.51 per gallon in 2013. The July 2014 New York Harbor reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) futures contract averaged $2.85 per gallon for the five trading days ending April 3, 2014.

Based on the market value of futures and options contracts for this key petroleum component of gasoline, there is a 3% probability that its price at expiration will exceed $3.35 per gallon, consistent with a monthly average regular-grade gasoline retail price exceeding $4 per gallon in July 2014. 

The North Sea Brent crude oil spot price in March averaged near $110 per barrel for the ninth consecutive month, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices remained flat near $101 per barrel. New pipeline capacity from the Midwest into the Gulf Coast helped reduce inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub to 27 million barrels by the end of March 2014, the lowest level since November 2009. The discount of WTI crude oil to Brent crude oil, which averaged more than $13 per barrel from November through January, fell to $7 per barrel in March. EIA expects the WTI discount to average $9 per barrel in 2014 and $11 per barrel in 2015.