Senator, or Governor?

In the past, governors aspired to the Senate, but the trend is beginning to reverse.

March 03, 2017

By Jim Ellis

WASHINGTON – Not long ago, it was commonplace for governors completing their terms to run for the Senate. Today, this trend is on the cusp of completely reversing itself.

Already, as incumbents and political aspirants begin to test the proverbial waters for the 2018 election cycle, several senators have openly toyed with running for governor of their state instead of reelection.

While it might be justified in thinking that minority Democrats might find leaving the Senate (where their power is limited) for the confines of a governor’s office an attractive choice, the federal reverberation to state politics appears to be a rather nonpartisan phenomenon.

Late last year, particularly when it became clear to Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) that he would not succeed retiring Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) as the body’s majority or minority leader, the veteran federal officeholder appeared poised to challenge first-term Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. Just a few weeks ago, Sen. Durbin declared that he will remain in Washington, and likely seek re-election when his seat again comes before the voters in 2020.

Then, two-term Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (D), who is a sure bet for reelection, transparently contemplated entering her open governor’s race.  She, too, later decided to remain in the Senate.

Following an equally public display of political ambivalence, Nevada Republican Sen. Dean Heller also said that he would seek reelection, though the open governor’s race clearly tempted him. Sen. Heller appears to be the Democrats’ top 2018 conversion target.

Sens. Tom Udall (D-NM) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) also looked closely at gubernatorial runs, the former in 2018 and the latter before this past election, but they, too, decided to stay put.

Now, Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Bob Corker (R-TN) appear to be coming forward to consider making a bid for their state’s open gubernatorial post. Sen. Corker is in-cycle next year, while Sen. Collins serves through 2020.

While the current popular trend favors senators looking toward their governor’s office, we do find two term-limited governors potentially running for the Senate: Florida’s Rick Scott (R) and Maine’s Paul LePage (R). 

Governor is looking as the more attractive political position because so many states are taking cutting-edge action. Maybe Washington will soon follow the leader.

Jim Ellis is the publisher of Ellis Insight, a service of Weber Merritt Public Affairs.

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