LOS ANGELES - A recent article in the Los Angeles Business Journal highlighted how Los Angeles County??s gas station industry is likely to change soon due to BP??s plans to sell its Carson refinery and the area??s Arco gas stations.

What those changes will be, however, depends on the buyer of the Arco stations.

"We??re kind of in limbo right now," said George Barseghian, operations manager for Meetra Inc. which owns 12 Arco stations countywide. "We don??t know who??s going to take over, what our relationship will be with the newcomer and how it will affect our supply. We just don??t know what??s going to happen and whether their policies will change."

BP announced recently that by the end of next year, it intends to sell its Carson refinery and all Arco stations in Southern California, Arizona, and Nevada. The number of stations is likely to total more than 400, with the majority located in Southern California, and half of those independently owned. And it is the independents that rely on BP for their fuel supply as well as their brand identity and promotion.

"The outcome will depend entirely on who BP sells Arco to," said Tim Hamilton, a petroleum industry consultant in Olympia, Washington. "If it sells it to someone fragile, then the franchises could have a bad experience. If the buyer, on the other hand, is better than BP, then their experience will be good."

Hamilton said that antitrust laws, though, will ensure that the buyer is probably not already conducting business in Southern California.

"Chevron, for instance, probably can??t buy it," he said. "The most likely scenario is that they will sell it to a company that no one recognizes here."

Jay McKeeman, vice president of government relations for the California Independent Oil Marketers Association, fears a potential "market retreat" by whatever company that turns out to be. He said that in such a case, Arco??s new owner might abandon independent stations, forcing them to fend for themselves in the spot market, which could destabilize their retail price.

"That would be very problematic," McKeeman said. "Arco-branded stations would clearly be at risk."

Judy Dugan, research director of Consumer Watchdog, agreed with McKeeman??s assessment.

"The fact remains that Arco has generally been the cheapest gas in most local markets and I don??t think that??s likely to last," she said. "Who would buy the company and say: Jeez, I guess I??ll undercut my own brand by selling Arco cheap?"

Charles Langley, senior gas analyst for the Utility Consumer Action Network, said the marketplace could then feel a ripple effect.

"Arco has a tremendous amount of market power and is extremely competitive," he said. "They are cost-cutters. If I were an Arco dealer, I??d be very concerned."

Charlie Mulcahy, who??s owned an Arco station in Wilmington for 30 years, said he??s worried and unhappy about the uncertainty.

"In gas marketing we have a saying: either you make fast nickels or slow dimes," he said. "Arco is into fast nickels. If they decided to change their profile and all of a sudden we were high priced, I??d have to really scratch my head."