A Smokeless U.K. by 2050?

Smoking could "virtually disappear" in England by 2050, according to research by Citigroup.

January 11, 2011

LONDON - Smoking is on the wane in Britain, with the percentage of Brits lighting up dropping from more than 50-percent in the 1960s to 20-percent in 2008. As a result, analysts are predicting a zero percent smoking rate in many markets by 2050, The Telegraph reports.

"The percentage of smokers is declining across the developed world, and the declines are more or less in a straight line in most markets," said analysts. "If these trends continue, then by 2050, many important tobacco markets will have gone to zero smoking."

Citigroup emphasized that the forecast does not justify any action as of yet, adding that the rising cost of tobacco will continue to drive profit for tobacco companies until 2020. It added that the move to plain packaging could pose a challenge to the tobacco industry, though it remained pessimistic that such a move would affect sales measurably.

"We don€™t believe smokers are attracted to smoking by the packs because graphic health warnings already make them look revolting. Furthermore plenty of drugs are bought without branded packaging," said a Citigroup broker.

For now, the company stressed that it was "ultra-bearish" on the sector.

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