PALM BEACH, Fla. - Will we see $5 gasoline in 2012? Depends on whom you ask.

John Hofmeister, former president of Shell Oil who now heads the Houston-based nonprofit Citizens for Affordable Energy, said he believes that $5 gasoline will become reality by 2012 in the United States, and that the next two years "will be a disaster when it comes to energy prices," writes the Palm Beach Post. He cites a "divided Congress" and increased regulation of motor fuels and oil as the primary drivers, as well as global supply demand that could lead to "severe energy shortages" within the next 10 years.

"If it happened, it would be horrific," Hofmeister told the newspaper, adding, "It would send hundreds of billions of our disposable income to the Middle East."

However, other industry experts disagree.

"I think he [Hofmeister] is dead wrong," Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service, told the newspaper. "I think he is guilty of some hyperbole here. We are not looking at $5 a gallon in the next couple of years."

Kloza added that for gasoline prices to reach $5 a gallon, crude oil would have to reach a price tag of $175 a barrel.

"There is a question whether the global economy could handle something north of $125 a barrel on crude oil and a question about whether the U.S. could handle anything north of $100," Kloza said, adding, "My forecast is $3.25 to $3.75 for the spring peak this year."

Meanwhile, Brian Milne, Telvent DTN energy editor in Omaha, agrees that gasoline could reach $5 in 2012.

"The key issue has been the country's inability to establish an energy policy," Milne told the newspaper. "Oil is an international commodity which is seeing increased demand globally, mainly from emerging economies in Asia. This will tighten the supply-demand balance and push oil prices higher."

Then there??s AAA, which sides with Kloza.

AAA Auto Club South's Jessica Brady also believes that $5 a gallon gasoline is unlikely come 2012.

"It's almost impossible to predict where prices are going to be five months from now, much less 15 months from now," she told the newspaper. "That comment has consumers worried. We need to focus on what is happening now and what is going to directly affect us instead of speculation for next year."

Ned Bowman, executive director of the Florida Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association, believes that anything is possible with gasoline prices. "You have speculators in the market in New York who are driving a lot of the pricing," he told the newspaper, adding that retailers selling gasoline would be devastated by $5 a gallon fuel.

Dave Mica, executive director of the Florida Petroleum Council, told the newspaper that he cannot predict prices because of antitrust laws but sees indicators that point to a tighter market.

"If we are headed toward an economic recovery, that is good news. That has also historically meant more energy demand...If you look at the regulatory climate that Washington is producing, getting back to work in deeper waters of the gulf is pretty darn difficult, if not impossible," Mica said, adding, "The permitting process has been slowed so much that it is a de facto moratorium."